It still feels like summer in most regions of the US, with a heatwave hitting us all in late October. Nonetheless, summer has concluded, and with that, our team has compiled a list of our best forecasting calls for summer 2024 across each U.S. ISO.
On July 1-5, temperatures reached the high 90s during the hottest parts of the day. On July 4, Amperon's forecast outperformed ERCOTs with an average MAPE of 0.97% compared to ERCOT's 2.72%.
Price impact
On July 1st and 2nd, ERCOT overestimated peak demand, whereas Amperon accurately forecasted weaker peak demand, leading to mostly positive DARTs during the evening peak across the ERCOT price zones. Utilizing Amperon's forecast saves traders money, while the ERCOT day ahead forecast would have resulted in losses on these days.
On July 15-16, temperatures across PJM soared into the high 90s and reached the 100s in some regions and demand exceeded PJM's forecasted summer demand peak of 151 GW.
Price impact
July 15
PJM RTO day-ahead prices cleared higher than real-time prices during the peak demand hour, likely due to PJM overestimating the demand peak by 4 GW. Our demand forecast accurately gave traders early insight that actual demand would not reach 155 GWs, enabling traders to position for cheaper real-time prices.
July 16
PJM RTO real-time prices exceeded day-ahead prices at the evening peak hour as PJM under forecasted peak demand by 3 GW. Our demand forecast informed traders that real-time demand would surpass PJM's projection, resulting in higher real-time prices.
On July 30 through August 5, high temperatures ranged from the upper 80s to the low 90s across the state. On August 1, demand peaked at 28.4 GW, even as some demand response measures reduced overall demand.
Price impact
NYISO under-forecasted load July 30-August 1 and with demand significantly higher than NYISO's day-ahead prediction, real-time prices spiked across the evening peak. Our demand forecast alerted subscribing traders that real-time demand would surpass NYISO's projection, resulting in higher real-time prices.
On July 14-17, temperatures reached the high 80s, with places like Boston hitting the 90s and high humidity pushed the heat index even higher in these regions, increasing the perceived intensity.
Price impact
On July 16, the summer's highest demand day, real-time prices remained below day-ahead prices, leading to positive DA-RT spreads for most of the day. Real time demand came in lower than ISONE's day ahead forecast, likely contributing to weaker real-time prices.
Weaknesses in real-time pricing
Amperon's peak demand forecast was slightly below ISONE’s, signaling potential weakness in real-time prices in ISONE.
On July 8-11, temperatures soared into the mid-90s and 100s, with record breaking heat in inland areas. Though actual demand did exceed 40 GW each day, CAISO consistently overestimated peak demand.
Price impact
Day-ahead prices from July 9-12 cleared above $200, likely driven by high demand and low renewable generation expected during the evening peak. Our net demand forecast offered insights that net demand might not reach CAISO’s projections, signaling the potential for weaker real-time prices when net demand peaked.
On July 7-12, maximum temperatures were consistently over 110 degrees Fahrenheit across this time, resulting in the highest demand peaks of the summer for this region. Temperatures around the whole West were high as well, putting extra stress on the grid.
MISO saw its summer demand peak on August 26th of 121.6 GW. On this day, MISO under forecasted demand by approximately 1.7 GW and temperatures peaked over 90 degrees for the afternoon across the region.
Price impact
Amperon's forecast provided a more accurate signal of negative DA-RTs across the evening peak in the northern hubs on the 26th, correctly indicating that demand would climb higher than MISO's prediction. On the 27th and 28th, MISO over-forecasted peak demand by as much as 4.7 GW, likely driving a positive DA-RT spread pattern on these days across the evening peak.
On August 1-4, demand was elevated as SPP experienced a heat wave and temperatures averaged in the mid-90s across the region. Wind generation was relatively low, hovering around 10 GW, with natural gas and coal providing most of the power. Wind contributed just 10% during peak demand hours and minimal to no solar curtailment occurred during this time and SPP to consistently overestimated solar production.
Tropical Storm Debby made landfall made landfall in the SEC region around 7am on Monday, August 5. This caused flooding, strong winds, and rain in the SERC region Monday-Thursday. Our forecasts consistently outperformed the ISOs August 6-9:
- Amperon's MAPE in SC was approximately 1.65x better
- Amperon's MAPE in CPLE was 2.42x better
- Amperon's MAPE in DUK was 1.34x better
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