Most times of day, most places on the grid, Amperon offers the most accurate energy demand forecasts. We do especially well during extreme weather events. Below we highlighted an event for each U.S. ISO in the Spring that showcases just that.
ERCOT
May 24-27: Memorial Day
High temperatures ranged in the mid-90s during these days, with peak demand reaching 77.1 GW on Memorial Day, May 27th.
Despite being a holiday weekend, which usually sees lower demand, the high temperatures drove significant energy usage.
Price Impact
For May 24th HE17, ERCOT's DA forecast was overestimated, while Amperon’s DA forecast was less than 1GW off from actuals.
ERCOT RTO DA prices cleared at $259.65 at this hour, while RT prices were $90.11.
Using Amperon's forecast would have informed traders that DARTs would have been $169.54 positive at the peak demand hour.
PJM
June 17-21: Mid-June heatwave
This was the first major heatwave of the summer for the East Coast, resulting in countless issued Hot Weather Alerts.
Temperatures exceeded 90° F for several consecutive days, which set new records for some areas.
The heat spread as far north as ISONE and all throughout PJM, resulting in a tight power grid.
Juneteenth presented new challenges as the market attempted to forecast peak demand on this relatively new federal holiday, coinciding with record-breaking temperatures.
Similar to PJM, this was the first major heatwave for the summer, resulting in countless issued Hot Weather Alerts.
Temperatures exceeded 90° F for several consecutive days, which set new records for some areas.
The heat spread as far north as ISONE and all throughout PJM, resulting in a tight power grid.
Juneteenth presented new challenges as the market attempted to forecast peak demand on this relatively new federal holiday, coinciding with record-breaking temperatures.
Solar curtailment instances have grown this spring due to mild temperatures and 2.4 GWh increase in year-over-year solar generation.
Amperon’s solar forecast outperformed CAISO’s during most hours this period because CAISO’s forecast does not consider curtailments.
In addition, CAISO’s over-forecast of solar generation led to significant net demand APE values during high solar generation hours:
CAISO over forecasted solar on average 4-5 GW more than Amperon’s forecast and actuals.
This resulted in a misleading and incorrect CAISO net demand forecast for the midday.
Amperon’s solar forecast performance
MISO
May 25-29: Memorial Day Weekend
Using Amperon's demand forecast, customers could have anticipated higher demand than MISO's forecast and bought into the Day-Ahead market, as DARTs were likely to be negative during the evening peak.
Temperatures were warmer than normal this holiday weekend.
MISO underestimated the demand peaks during this time.
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