In 2024, our energy demand forecasts in France exceeded those of every other major vendor. Additionally, our forecasts performed exceptionally well not just in France, but also in Germany, Denmark, Great Britain, and the Netherlands, consistently outpacing the TSOs last year.

Here’s also a look at some of Amperon’s best forecasting calls for last year.  

France
December 9-13

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France experienced its coldest week of winter so far that week, with morning temperatures dropping to 1°C or below in several regions.  On December 13th, electricity demand peaked at 75.5 GW during the 1 PM to 2 PM hour (HE13), marking the highest consumption level of the season.
 

From December 11th to 13th, Day-Ahead energy prices exceeded 270 €/MWh, with imbalance prices sometimes surpassing Day-Ahead levels, especially during periods of weak renewable generation.
 

The elevated prices were primarily driven by increased demand due to the cold temperatures and low wind generation. Throughout the week, wind generation remained below 5 GW, hitting a low of just 1.1 GW on December 13th.  

Solar generation also underperformed during most of this period, which significantly contributed to the higher energy prices.  

Amperon's demand forecast consistently outperformed France's actual demand, particularly during the coldest days of December 12th and 13th, when demand reached its highest peaks.
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Spain
December 9-13
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During this period, morning low temperatures dropped to as low as 4°C, with demand peaking at 37.1 GW at HE21 on the 10th. That week marked the coldest conditions Spain has experienced so far this winter. Furthermore, wind generation consistently stayed below 3 GW from December 11 to 13, leading to high Day-Ahead and imbalance prices.  

Imbalance prices spiked above Day-Ahead prices, particularly on the 11th when demand was at its highest and renewable generation barely exceeded 2 GW. At the peak demand hour, HE21, Amperon's demand forecast was 1.81x more accurate than that of the TSO.

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Throughout the week, Amperon's demand forecasts consistently outperformed those of Spain's Red Electrica, especially during the coldest times of day when renewable generation was weak and price volatility increased.

Great Britain
November 18-22

During this period, temperatures in some parts of the UK dropped as low as -1°C, resulting in the highest demand levels recorded this winter so far. Peak demand reached 43.5 GW at 6 PM on November 20th. During this peak hour, Amperon's forecast was 1.38x more accurate than the Electricity System Operator’s (ESO), demonstrating a clear advantage. By predicting higher demand than the ESO, our forecast provided traders with critical insights into the potential for elevated demand.

When we re-ran our model using actual weather data to eliminate weather-related inaccuracies, our forecast proved to be 7.66x more accurate than the ESO's at this hour. This week, our average Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPEs) consistently outperformed the ESO's forecasts.

From November 18 to 20, exceptionally weak wind generation led to significantly higher levels of net demand.

Germany
December 9- 13

During this period, average temperatures remained at or below 4°C, with the second half of the week averaging closer to 0°C. Peak demand hours averaged over 70 GW for this timeframe. Starting Wednesday, the 11th, wind levels dropped significantly, leading to a Dunkelflaute.  

Average wind generation did not exceed 4 GW from the 11th to the 13th. Throughout this period, Amperon’s demand forecast consistently outperformed DE_LU’s, providing traders with valuable insights into elevated prices, as DE_LU’s forecast underestimated demand at critical moments.

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On the 11th, Real-Time Intraday Continuous Prices reached a peak of EUR 1,157.80/MWh at hour ending 17 (HE17), while imbalance prices averaged EUR 4,324.64/MWh during this time. The extreme negative DARTs for the DE_LU region were likely caused by higher demand levels than forecasted, coupled with weaker-than-expected wind generation.

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For the 12th, Day-Ahead prices set a record, hitting an 18-year high of EUR 936.28/MWh at hour ending 18 (HE18). Average wind generation was below 1 GW for most of the day. However, Intraday prices at HE18 settled at approximately 300 €/MWh lower than this peak, providing traders with valuable insights into the elevated prices. The demand forecast for DE_LU underestimated the requirements during critical moments.

Ireland
October 31-November 6

Dunkelflaute
During this period, wind generation forecasts were consistently inaccurate, resulting in volatility in the Day-Ahead Auction prices. Amperon's daily (RMSE) consistently outperformed the forecasts provided by IE throughout this timeframe.

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On both the 3rd and 4th, the (TSO) over-forecasted wind generation by nearly 1 GW across multiple hours, while Amperon's forecast remained highly accurate during this time.

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The evening of the 3rd and most of the on-peak period on the 4th experienced the largest price spreads between Day-Ahead and Imbalance prices. Between Hour Ending (HE) 9 and HE 20 on the 4th, the average price spread was approximately 250 €/MWh, with Imbalance prices spiking to nearly 500 €/MWh during certain hours.  

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Amperon's wind forecast was, on average, within about 150 MW of the actual generation, while the TSO's wind forecast was, on average, about 1,000 MW off from the actual figures.

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