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Summer 2022 Forecast Recap

Morgan Harvey  |   September 28, 2022

Historic. Unprecedented. Dire. Summer 2022 was set to break numerous records and make managing risk even more difficult than usual. There was severe drought in Texas and the Southeast causing high temperatures across the US; natural gas shortages shooting prices to a 14-year high; and a high risk of energy shortfalls across the country.

With all the volatility, it’s important to have the right tools to handle extreme events. At Amperon, for example, we use an ensemble of AI and accurate weather models to deal with extreme scenarios. To show how well our forecasts performed this summer full of uncertainty, here’s a breakdown of each market and how Amperon’s forecasts compared to the ISO.

Amperon’s forecasts for May - August 2022 were up to 35% more accurate than ERCOT’s.

Amperon’s forecasts for May - August 2022 were up to 35% more accurate than ERCOT’s.

Weather Recap

Good demand forecasts need good weather forecasts. Our Chief Meteorologist Dr. Mark Shipham tracked the summer weather closely. Dr. Shipham was early to warn of a hot May and later predicted this might be ERCOT’s warmest summer in history, beating out the summer of 2011.

With the drought centered right over Texas, Dr. Shipham analyzed the number of Cooling Degrees Days (CDDs), which by mid-July already surpassed 2011. He also looked at the number of days above 100 degrees, soil conditions and hurricane activity.

But who is the winner for the hottest ERCOT on record? It looks like 2022 is the champion.

The total CDD for June-August of 2022 was 1053, 7 higher than the same period in 2011. Published on Commodity Weather Group (https://www.commoditywx.com)

The total CDD for June-August of 2022 was 1053, 7 higher than the same period in 2011. Published on Commodity Weather Group (https://www.commoditywx.com)

Not only was Texas breaking records, but the entire US was above normal for June, July and August.

U.S. Station Surface Temperature anomaly showing 1 degree higher temperatures across the U.S. and a 2 degree increase over Texas. Published on Commodity Weather Group (https://www.commoditywx.com)

U.S. Station Surface Temperature anomaly showing 1 degree higher temperatures across the U.S. and a 2 degree increase over Texas. Published on Commodity Weather Group (https://www.commoditywx.com)

With summer out of the way, we can all enjoy a little breather during the shoulder months and start to prepare for winter. Early reports show another La Niña is likely to occur. To know what that means for forecasts, Dr. Shipham will host his Winter Weather webinar on October 20. You can sign up here.

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