Last week, Tropical Storm Debby significantly impacted many areas within SERC. The storm brought heavy rain, strong winds, and widespread flooding to this region. In the face of such unpredictable storms, it’s essential to have critical tools in place to mitigate disruptions and ensure reliable power.
Debby made landfall as a Category 1 Hurricane first thing in the morning on August 5th around HE7. At that time, Amperon’s forecast in SEC, the zone along Florida’s northwest coast, was 1.3x more accurate than the ISO’s.
As Monday progressed, the majority of SOCO began experiencing the storm's effects, where Amperon’s forecast continued to outperform with a MAPE of 1.19% compared to the ISO’s 4.59%. By Tuesday, Debby’s impact reached regions like DUK and CPLE in the Carolinas, where the most significant rainfall occurred over a four-day period, with some areas receiving more than 10 inches of rain.
"Energy demand during Debby was lower than usual, not just because of power outages but also due to cooler outside temperatures. With Debby blocking the sun providing cloud cover for several days, the typical hot and humid conditions were less prevalent, leading to lower demand in regions affected throughout the day," said Amperon's Chief Meteorologist, Dr. Mark Shipham.
"Looking back, Amperon’s forecasts consistently outperformed the ISOs during this time: Amperon's MAPE in SC from August 6-9 was approximately 1.65x better, CPLE’s was 2.42x better, and DUK’s was 1.34x better. These zones, all severely impacted by Debby, benefitted from Amperon’s superior forecasting throughout the storm," added Elliott Chorn, Amperon's EVP of Product.
As we continue through hurricane season, it’s essential to be prepared for extreme weather events. For reliable predictions during such critical times, subscribe to our SERC demand forecast. Stay safe and stay informed.
