Utility Load Risk Management and Net Load Forecasting

Data centers and AI infrastructure are reshaping load curves overnight, at the same time that electrification, extreme weather, and the rapid growth of renewables add complexity that legacy utility load forecasting software was never built to handle.

For risk teams at IOUs, munis, and co-ops, inadequate utility load forecasting means exposure on resource adequacy, procurement costs, and rate recovery.

Amperon is the energy risk management platform that utilities trust to manage that exposure. We build custom utility load and net load forecasts collaboratively with your team, integrating directly with AMI and other systems.

Built for the needs of all types of utilities

Investor-owned utilities (IOUs)

Manage your slice-of-system load auction commitments, maintain resource adequacy, and inform rate recovery, procurement, and hedges.

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Public power

Managing resource adequacy risk and keeping rates low for muni and co-op customers with a simple, customized solution.

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Joint Action Agencies (JAAs)

Avoid over- or under-buying and buying at the last minute. Aggregate or break down your load requirements for planning and procurement decisions.

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Get backtest data

Why utilities choose Amperon

“Partnering with Amperon has been a critical step forward for our division. We made a commitment to achieve timely and accurate load forecasts, and by integrating their forecasts into our workflows, our teams—from control rooms to market balancing—can confidently inform real-time operational and financial decisions.”

Paul Dietz

Senior Manager of Forecasting and Market Analytics at Grand PUD

“Amperon’s load forecasts are critical for planning our supply and demand response assets, especially during extreme weather events.”

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Christian Nagel

Director of Power Supply at Rayburn Electric Cooperative

“We use Amperon’s forecasting platform every day to help make better-informed decisions and to optimize our portfolio. It’s been a pivotal tool in our decision-making.”

Trader

at Orsted

“Amperon on Snowflake enables us to easily integrate our different data streams into a single unified view. We value having complete access and control over our analytics and visualization tools.”

Jack Wang

at Axpo

What utilities can do with Amperon

Better information, lower risk

Our power market forecasts and analytics help you:

Mitigate market volatility

Make procurement investments

Meet regulatory requirements

Control costs

Integrated customer data

Our forecasts incorporate your customer’s meter data to facilitate load risk management.

Tracking your service territory’s growth on our forecasting platform streamlines the process of load risk analysis.

Extreme weather scenarios

Amperon’s “what-if” scenario modeling offers foresight into the effects of extreme weather events across your territory.

The increasing severity of extreme weather requires better tools for responsible risk management.

Load auction obligations

Tools to manage your wholesale positions, schedule into Day-Ahead markets and meet in-house reporting requirements.

With Amperon’s forecasting platform you can also manage your load auctions and slice-of-system requirements.

Customizable and timely reporting

Amperon’s platform supports customizable dashboards and flexible outputs via CSV/flat file downloads or via API to power your workflow.

Sync the industry’s leading forecasts with your reporting requirements or other regular data-intensive processes.

Amperon utility load forecasting software solutions

With Amperon's demand forecasting, you receive answers you can trust, delivered in real-time. Sourcing from 25+ years of vetted weather and demand data on the most trusted platform designed exclusively for energy grid operations.

How Amperon load risk management solutions work

Data inputs

We identify and collect relevant data streams like meter data, load profiles, and meter forward counts.

Hybrid modeling

A blend of physics-based and machine learning models produces our forecasts and updates them hourly or up to every 5 minutes.

Flexible outputs for any workflow

The forecasts integrate seamlessly with Amperon customers’ preferred analytical tools.

Actionable insights

Load-serving entities make better-informed decisions that improve operations and achieve strategic goals.

Products

Benefits of Amperon for utilities

Forecasts calibrated to utilities’ specific service territories.

15-day

short-term forecasts

46-day

sub-seasonal forecasts

7-month

seasonal forecasts

5-year

long-term forecasts

96-hour

historical forecast slider

Custom

service territories

Customized meter-level insights

Short- and mid-term forecasts updated hourly

Multiple weather vendors plus an ensemble forecast

Weather scenarios for stress testing

Quickly analyze data by load type and resolution

Know how your renewables will perform

15-day

forecasts

5-minute

granularity

15+

weather variables

2-3%

cnMAE accuracy achieved for solar

targeted cnMAE accuracy for wind

Hourly

updated forecasts

Real-time operational insights

Confidently schedule bids for the day- or week-ahead

Manage generation with dual storage assets during high-priced events

Increase your bottom line with next-generation forecasting

Custom generated forecasts become more accurate over time

Anticipate how load will respond to weather

15-day

forecasts

1-hour

granularity in North American ISOs

15-minute

granularity in European TSOs

96-hour

historical forecast slider

additional data sets for wind and solar

weather vendors

Grid insights updated hourly

Weather scenarios to stress test different weather conditions

Best-in-class weather inputs

Ensemble weather forecast

Breakdown forecasts by Load or Weather Zones

See where price trends will peak or bottom out.

15-day

day-ahead forecasts

1-hour

granularity for day-ahead

3-day

real-time forecasts

5-minute

model run updates

5-minute

granularity for RT

load zones and hubs

*ERCOT & API only

Grid insights updated hourly

Maximize energy arbitrage opportunities

Shift load to avoid high-cost hours and mitigate load risk

Optimize DART spread for your thermal and renewable assets

Inform battery dis/charge operations to capture peak prices

Visualize sub-seasonal and seasonal demand.

46-Day

sub-seasonal forecast updated daily

7-Month

seasonal forecast updated monthly

Hourly

load granularity

9 ISOs/RTOs

and all zones in the United States

Probabilistic

P5-P95 and multiples of 10 available

51 Load

ensembles built from ECMWF's weather forecast

Backtests are available for all US ISOs and European RTOs.

Optimize hedges and power supply up to 7 months out

Manage intra-month and seasonal weather and load volatility

Conduct scenario analysis with 51 forecast outcomes and analog years

Evaluate percentile intervals to support financial and operational decisions

Get advance notice of coincident peak events.

dedicated CP models

7-day

advance notice

per day updates

0-100

likelihood score

92%

historical day-ahead accuracy

100%

historical intra-day accuracy

Forecast all major US CP programs

Minimize coincident peak demand charges

Minimize peak load contribution tags

Minimize installed capacity tags

Minimize utility transmission charges

Utility load forecasting success stories

Summer 2025 Heat Wave - PJM

Event:

90+° temps swept across the East Coast in June causing the highest summer demand in 10 years.

Challenge

The ISO was late in detecting demand would spike above 160 GW due to the excessive heat and AC usage.

Amperon result

Amperon forecasted demand to be near 160 GW a full seven days out. Our Day-Ahead accuracy was under .5% for the peak hours of the two highest-demand days.

Impact

Real-time prices soared past $3,000/MWh. Traders using Amperon had a full week to capitalize on price movement before the rest of the market caught on.

Graph comparing ERCOT's actual and forecasted power consumption with historical data

Arctic Blast over MLK Jr Weekend - PNW

Event:

An arctic blast in January 2024 brought much colder weather than anticipated to the Pacific Northwest and West Coast over the holiday weekend.

Challenge

Traditional demand forecasts failed to capture the unpredictable effects caused by the abundance of microclimates in mountainous regions.

Amperon result

Despite the challenges of incorrect weather predictions, Amperon’s forecasts were up to 2x more accurate than the ISO for peak hours.

Impact

Electricity prices spiked to $1,000 with some utilities losing as much as $26 million due to inaccurate forecasts.

A detailed graph comparing actual energy consumption to forecasts in ERCOT LZ_SOUTH, with a focus on energy price forecasting

FAQs from utilities

Manage resource adequacy risk with the most reliable custom forecasts for utilities

Built for the needs of all types of utilities

Investor-owned utilities (IOUs)

Public power

Joint Action Agencies (JAAs)

Why utilities choose Amperon

What utilities can do with Amperon

Integrated customer data

Extreme weather scenarios

Load auction obligations

Customizable and timely reporting

Amperon utility load forecasting software solutions

How Amperon load risk management solutions work

Products

Benefits of Amperon for utilities

Utility load forecasting success stories

Don’t let load risk drag you down